Forecasts Predict Growth In Sales This Holiday Shopping Season

By Christine Kern, contributing writer

The National Retail Federation (NRF) is predicting holiday sales will increase 3.7 percent this year, and The International Council of Shopping Centers also predicts growth in its 2015 holiday forecast and consumer spending survey.

The NRF forecast expects sales in November and December to jump by 3.7 percent to $630.5 billion, and 2015 holiday sales are anticipated to comprise approximately 19 percent of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion. NRF also forecasts online sales to increase between 6 and 8 percent, to as much as $105 billion.

According to the results of the ICSC survey, this year could top the average of the past 10 holiday shopping seasons by more than 1.5 percent. The study also found that 80 percent plan to spend the same or more this year, and predicts that shoppers will spend an average of $702 this season, up from $677 in 2014. Shoppers will split their holiday spend with $575 on holiday gifts and $127 on decorations, greeting cards, clothing, and other holiday-related items. Another key finding from the survey is that 95 percent of Americans plan to do their holiday shopping at brick-and-mortar stores.

The 2015 ICSC Holiday Shopping Survey was conducted Opinion Research Corporation from September 29 to October 1. The online survey included a nationwide demographically representative sample of 2,001 adults 18 years of age and older.

The NRF holiday sales forecast is based on an economic model that incorporates consumer credit, disposable personal income and previous monthly retail sales releases.