NRF Revises Forecast, Anticipating Rise In Sales And Spending

By Christine Kern, contributing writer

The National Retail Federation (NRF) has issued a revised retail sales forecast for 2015, lowering its anticipated figures due to unexpected slow growth during the first half of the year. The NRF is predicting, however, that sales will increase through the rest of 2015. The original forecast of 4.1 percent growth in retail sales over last year is now revised to 3.5 percent.

The NRF’s announcement follows a U.S. Department of Commerce report on June sales noting that sales were down. Excluding autos, gas, building materials and restaurants, core retail sales fell 0.1 percent in June after an increase of 0.7 percent in May.

Sales during the first six months of 2015 saw 2.9 percent growth, according to NRF calculations, and they are anticipated to increase at a more positive pace of 3.7 percent over the next five months.

“A confluence of events, including treacherous weather throughout the United States through most of the winter, issues at the West Coast ports, a stronger U.S. dollar, weak foreign growth and declines in energy sector investments all significantly and negatively impacted retail sales so far this year, and thus have changed how future sales will shape up for the rest of 2015,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. He explained that household spending patterns have moved away from goods, towards services in what might be a transitory trend. Furthermore, he explained, a deflationary retail environment has been especially challenging for retailers’ bottom lines.